I think you're right about being aware of biases; that knowledge can steer us away from a lot of dodgy thinking.

That's a good point about taking on words and descriptions that have a positive effect: I think it's about using what you already know about yourself when you take a personality test (or read a horoscope), then drawing out what's helpful to you within it.

Thanks for your comment – keep up the positivity!

Excellent article! I've long known that horoscopes were clever generalisations that would apply to almost anybody reading it, so everyone thinks it applies to them individually! I especially liked your research and naming of the individual theories, which grounds an otherwise personal opinion into a very respectable scientific understanding of the issue.

In fact, you may like a book called “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, which covers the kind of flawed thinking most people engage in. Hope it's okay to add a link to the book review on my site here, because that book is making exactly the same point as you do here and I think you'll like it a lot:

http://www.joyfuldays.com/2008/11/book-review-f…

Great work as usual, Ali. You write extremely well, and that includes the research you put in as well.

But like Billionaire Woman said, I just recently have had a number of coincidences happen that I can't deny. Maybe my brain is just trying to seek out things in the environment that will confirm a decision I have been trying to make for years.

Lest we forget, many grand life changing and history changing decisions have been made with these biases. Both good and bad.

While it is wise to watch out for biases that will steer us in the wrong direction I also believe that, with the right mindset, self fulfilling prophecies can, and should, come true.

Cheers,
Jeremy

I had been reading up on cold-reading for pure entertainment (and also to get me armed with knowledge on how to better encourage others) for the past one month, and yes, your point on subjective validation is spot on in regards to the areas on personality tests.

For example, my MBTI results mentioned that I'm an ENTJ, and by further lookup on the traits and qualities in regards to my personality type, I just took on those words (descriptions) that would have a positive effect for me and worked on those strengths.

On the other point on the “self-fulfilling prophesy” part, I can share on how it seems to be that I've had a string of wonderful and positive coincidental incidents that worked to my advantage for these few days – it'll take a few paragraphs to list them out. But, I'd definitely like to keep it going this way. Let's say that I'm a pretty optimistic and positive person who thinks rationally while doing things. :)

Thumbs up for this article!

My experience of horoscopes has been similar to yours; I'm pretty convinced that most horoscope compilers are simply cunning about human nature and use generalities and banal phrases to convince people that it “works”.

Ali

(This is discounting all the rather less than successful elements of my day; oversleeping, failing to get anywhere near the bottom of my inbox, train delays… ;-))

As to whether the Forer effect applies despite the fact you *think* it applies … I'll let you square that vicious circle!

Ali

You know, I've read all of the horoscopes in a publication at once before. It seems they're all the same, just rephrased a little but basically predicting the same stuff (about love, success, etc.).

I do try to focus on positive thinking. I try to be upbeat and think happy thoughts. However, I do (personally) believe in the supernatural, and that sometimes folks really do have a gift (especially those who find missing/dead people). So many of those stories have turned out far too accurately to be coincidence, don't you think? ;-)

*smiles*
Michele

If you're interested in a real psychology-based personality test w/statisitically valid results (and really different for each person!), check out our Personality Patterns app; it provides very detailed feedback (45 traits) in a visually, interactive format, along w/some cool social features.

I must agree with the whole “this is how the law of attraction works” for the self-fulfilling prophecy part though. I think this article was very well researched. I've definitely heard of the tendency to think of yourself as above average. It definitely happened in my college days, but you know – not everyone can be at the top.

Very entertaining and enlightening article! Today, you will experience great success. :P

Like it said I was very loyal. Um, yeah, I guess. I mean, nobody thinks they're disloyal, right? But I wouldn't exactly say that loyalty is central to my personality. I believed it because that's what I was told, but when I eventually found out my real type, I could see that the first type was obviously way off.

I can definitely see how the Forer effect can completely mislead people, myself included. On the other hand, do I just think the Forer effect applies to me because I've been told it does? Because that would be the Forer effect in action right there!